Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 29 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(13:00) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PHI 32, Center-48-T.Ott. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 39 for 7 yards (21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.19 EP
52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model