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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 14

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 2-M.Nugent 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model