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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 8 yards (53-N.Bradham; 47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.78 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model