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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to LAC 20, Center-48-A.DePaola. 89-I.Burse to LAC 32 for 12 yards (43-P.Barber).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model