Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 1 at the 50
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14
What Actually Happened
(3:21) 43-P.Barber up the middle to LAC 48 for 2 yards (51-K.Emanuel).
The Three Options
GO
+0.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.49 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK
-1.57 EP
- 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT
-0.69 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
