Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

(11:25) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to TB 41, Center-47-M.Windt. 28-V.Hargreaves to TB 46 for 5 yards (25-D.Stuckey, 51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model