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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CLE 2, Center-48-T.Ott, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model