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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-48-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model