Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 7

(3:25) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-T.Ott, fair catch by 23-J.Haden.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model