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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model