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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model