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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 52

Cincinnati Bengals 23 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -1.42 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model