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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 38

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to DAL 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.91 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP