Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 85

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to DAL 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to NYG 29 for 28 yards (91-K.Sheppard, 57-K.Robinson). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.91 EP
54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model