Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 29 for 5 yards (89-G.Escobar). PENALTY on NYG-93-B.Goodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model