4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to NYG 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 44. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 44 for no gain (57-D.Wilson). Officially, a punt for 38 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP