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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to NYG 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 33 for 5 yards (52-A.Gachkar, 16-V.Mayle).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.79 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP