Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 56

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

(9:44) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to TEN 3, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.75 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model