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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 48

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to TEN 14, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model