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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 65

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 14-C.Latimer pushed ob at TEN 49 for 16 yards (47-A.Blake).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.78 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model