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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 4

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model