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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to DEN 45, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model