4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 13 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to DEN 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-10-T.McBride.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model