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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model