Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

(4:31) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to TEN 27, Center-45-T.Gafford. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 44 for 17 yards (45-T.Gafford).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model