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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to DEN 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.01 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP