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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 73

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to TEN 37, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.96 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP