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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model