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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New Orleans Saints 11

What Actually Happened

(6:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to NO 1, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-45-A.Cross.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model