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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 91

New Orleans Saints 11 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Drescher. 28-V.Hargreaves to 50 for 12 yards (54-N.Stupar).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.08 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP