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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New Orleans Saints 11

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NO 3, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP