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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TB 29, Center-47-J.Drescher. 28-V.Hargreaves to TB 25 for -4 yards (36-D.Lasco).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.56 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model