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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model