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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(11:08) (Field Goal formation) 7-M.King FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 25, and recovers at KC 25. 7-M.King to KC 20 for 5 yards (23-P.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP