4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 30-J.Richard to LV 22 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on LV-56-D.Bates, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP