Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(:38) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to KC 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 40 for 20 yards (20-N.Allen). PENALTY on KC-48-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.67 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model