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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.08 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP