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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 1 at the 27
Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3
What Actually Happened
(8:37) 32-S.Ware up the middle to LV 27 for no gain (20-N.Allen).
The Three Options
GO
+2.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.62 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.80 EP
KICK
+1.49 EP
- 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
- 20% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT
+0.15 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
