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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to KC 31, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model