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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model