4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.55 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP