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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:45) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BUF 15, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-B.Tate to BUF 15 for no gain (44-T.Matakevich, 37-J.Dangerfield).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.44 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model