Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 90

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to PIT 49, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 84-A.Brown to BUF 44 for 7 yards (36-J.Meeks). 0-yd. return credited (foul during kick). PENALTY on PIT-14-S.Coates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 49.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.57 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model