4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model