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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 26 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to LAC 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 89-I.Burse to LAC 34 for -1 yards (43-F.Whittaker).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model