Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 26 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

(14:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to LAC 32, Center-44-J.Jansen. 89-I.Burse to LAC 26 for -6 yards (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model