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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model