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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 50
Carolina Panthers 28 – Los Angeles Chargers 16
What Actually Happened
(8:04) 28-J.Stewart right guard to LAC 38 for 12 yards (56-K.Toomer).
The Three Options
GO
+0.92 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.41 EP
KICK
-1.30 EP
- 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
