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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to LAC 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model