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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 95

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to LAC 35, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-47-M.Windt.

The Three Options

GO -4.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model